The National Hurricane Center is giving the disturbance in the Gulf an 80% chance of developing over the weekend.
Environmental conditions are now favorable for a tropical storm to form during the next day or two as it begins to move north.
[GET THE LATEST TRACK IN OUR HURRICANE CENTER]
Beyond that time, conditions are expected to remain favorable for development, and interests along the entire Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of this disturbance through the weekend.
TROPIC FACT: To this date a "D" storm has never been named this early in the season, meaning we've never had four named storms in June.
Heavy rains and localized flooding are possible across the Yucatan, western Cuba, and southern Florida through Saturday.
An Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to fly into the system this afternoon.
WHERE DOES IT GO NEXT WEEK?
Models varyon the timing and track of this system, especially past the weekend.
SCENERIO #1: The storm goes across Florida and then into the Atlantic Ocean along the eastern seaboard. It would be intercepted by Monday's cold front, and likely stays out at sea. IMPACT: Heavy rain in Florida and nasty few days at the beach from Florida to NC with showers and high rip current risk.
SCENERIO #2: The storm lingers in the Gulf of Mexico, then tracks toward Texas and Louisianna with heavy rain there. IMPACT: Heavy rain for the Gulf Coast States, and some of that moisture may get pulled north mid to late next week.
And there's always the chance it could weaken, but it's unlikely at this point. Water temperatures are very warm and there's not a lot of wind sheer to break the storm up.
Stay tuned, especially if plans take you to the Gulf, Florida, Georgia, North and South Carolina coasts next week.
