Teel Time: How steep and extended will Virginia Tech's football decline be?

Virginia Tech’s football program has declined this season. That’s beyond dispute. Offense, defense, special teams, coaching.

The overarching question is: How steep and extended will the fall be?

History offers some, but no certain, guidance for fans of nationally prominent teams hoping to rebound.

* Twice in the last 30 years Notre Dame has endured six consecutive seasons in which it finished outside the national polls. The Irish, who won a national title and had nine top-20 seasons from 1987-96 under Lou Holtz, are in the midst of such a drought now.

But third-year coach Brian Kelly appears to have energized the program, and at 9-0, Notre Dame is poised for its first top-10 season since 2005 and perhaps its first national championsip since 1988.  

* Nebraska enjoyed an astonishing 33-year run under Bob Devaney and then Tom Osborne  from 1969-2001 in which it won at least nine games and finished among the top 20 every season. The Cornhuskers, who earned five national titles during that stretch, dipped to 7-7 in 2002 and had losing years in 2004 and ’07.

But at 7-2 this season and with a manageable late schedule, Nebraska is headed for a fifth straight nine-win record.

* Perhaps the most remarkable dynasty was Florida State’s 14 consecutive top-four Associated Press finishes from 1987-2000, a run that included Bobby Bowden’s two national championships. The streak ended with an 8-4 season but still a No. 15 national ranking.

The Seminoles remained among the top 25 until 2006, when they fell to 7-6, a record they repeated in 2007 and ’09. Their national-best run of consecutive bowl appearances will extend to 31 this season and with an 8-1 record entering Thursday’s game at Virginia Tech, Jimbo Fisher's team could return to the final AP top 10 for the first time in 12 years.

* Long-time Hokies rival Miami won three national championships and finished No. 2 or 3 four times from 1985-92. The Hurricanes’ initial slip, to 9-3 and No. 15, was minimal, and they ranked among the top 20 in 12 of the next 13 years.

Moreover, from 2000-03, Miami went 46-4 and won another national championship. All this the Hurricanes accomplished amid coaching transitions from Howard Schnellenberger to Jimmy Johnson to Dennis Erickson to Buch Davis.  

The only serious downer was a 5-6 year in 1997 under Davis, the product of NCAA sanctions. The past six seasons, however, have been trying: a 41-35 record, 22-26 in ACC. And more NCAA penalties are coming.

* Texas entered 2010 with a Bowl Subdivision-leading nine consecutive 10-win seasons, including the 2005 national championship. In 2009, the Longhorns were 13-1, losing only the BCS title game to Alabama.

All of which made their fall to 5-7, 2-6 in the Big 12, stunning. That was as many conference games as Texas had lost in the previous five years combined.

The Longhorns rebounded slightly to 8-5, 4-5 last year. They are 7-2 this season, but a 63-21 loss to Red River rival Oklahoma has fans calling for Mack Brown’s job.

* Florida won its first national championship in 1996, part of a seven-season stretch with at least 10 wins, all under Steve Spurrier. That run ended in 1999 with a 9-4 finish, but the subsequent years have included three 13-win seasons and two more national titles – thank you, Urban Meyer and Tim Tebow.

The Gators bottomed out at 7-6 in 2011, their fourth year outside the final polls since 2002. At 8-1 this season under second-under coach Will Muschamp, they will extend their bowl streak to 23 consecutive appearances.

* Southern California and coach Pete Carroll captured two national titles, played for a third and never won fewer than 10 games from 2002-08. The past three years – 9-4, 8-5 and 10-2 – haven’t been horrible, either.

But it’s still unclear how much scholarship reductions, imposed by the NCAA over the Reggie Bush mess, will damage the Trojans and third-year coach Lane Kiffin.

Like the seven programs mentioned above, Virginia Tech has authored uncommon sustained success, though the Hokies lack one recruiting trump that sustained the others: national championships.