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The chances of a White Christmas in southwest Virginia looks fairly slim. However, this far out, it's never too late to start gazing into the snow globe and wish for a Christmas miracle.
The pattern looked fairly impressive earlier this week as the EURO and GFS (American) models hinted at cold air and a wet storm leading up to the week before Christmas. The latest model guidance has the storm tracking away from the area with marginal cold air coming in behind it. Not enough to support snow.
As we eluded to over the past few days, a cooler pattern seems likely as we approach the week of Christmas. By cooler, we mean at or slightly below average with highs likely in the mid and upper 40s. No major arctic outbreaks.
The southern branch of the jet stream, which has been very active this week, will slowly get cut-off from the area, meaning the moisture source for any big event would be limited.
So far, the call for a White Christmas is about 5% for our region based on the latest model trends. As with anything, this is subject to change.
**This is not a forecast, rather a generalization of what may occur based on long-range models which are often unreliable more than a week out. Please check this page as it will be update often as we approach the Christmas holiday.**
While you're waiting for the big day to arrive, check out some historic holidays below. It has gone from wild to mild over the years.
HISTORIC CHRISTMAS SNOWFALL
You don't have to go back very many years to find a white Christmas in southwest Virginia.
In 2010, several inches of snow fell across the region, officially delivering a winter wonderland. After that, you need to go back to the 80s before you find measurable snow on Christmas Day.
We've had leftover snow on the ground Christmas Day several times over the years, but nothing that rivals the snowiest Christmas on record.
The snowiest Christmas Day came December 25, 1969. It started snowing the night before and continued through much of Christmas Day. In the end, over 14 inches of snow had fallen. Hillsides turned to ski slopes and the travel delays, both air and land, were record-setting at the time.
Based on 30 years worth of data, a typical year brings Roanoke/Lynchburg around a 5-10% chance of 1" of snow on the ground Christmas Day. Blacksburg and Hot Springs see an 11-25% chance.
ROANOKE
| RANK | YEAR | AMOUNT |
| 1st | 1969 | 14.6" |
| 2nd | 1914 | 6.9" |
| 3rd | 1962 |
6.8" |
LYNCHBURG
| RANK | YEAR | AMOUNT |
| 1st | 1969 | 9.9" |
| 2nd | 1914 | 5.4" |
| 3rd | 1909 |
4.9" |
The warmest Christmas Days:
Roanoke (1912-2010):
1) 68 degrees in 1982 and 1964
2) 67 degrees in 1955
3) 65 degrees in 1934
Lynchburg (1893-2010)
1) 72 degrees in 1982
2) 71 degrees in 1955
3) 67 degrees in 1965, 1964, and 1915
Danville (1948-2010)
1) 76 degrees in 1955
2) 68 degrees in 1982 and 1979
3) 67 degrees in 1988
Blacksburg (1952-2010)
1) 68 degrees in 1964
2) 65 degrees in 1955
3) 60 degrees in 1982
Bluefield (1959-2010)
1) 64 degrees in 1982
2) 62 degrees in 1987
3) 60 degrees in 1964
The coldest high temperatures for Christmas:
Roanoke (1912-2010):
1) 11 degrees in 1983
2) 26 degrees in 1980
3) 27 degrees in 2000 and 1989
Lynchburg (1893-2010)
1) 13 degrees in 1983
2) 27 degrees in 1969
3) 28 degrees in 1999, 1989, and 1962
Danville (1948-2010)
1) 28 degrees in 1989
2) 31 degrees in 1998
3) 32 degrees in 1983
Blacksburg (1952-2010)
1) 13 degrees in 1983
2) 20 degrees in 1989
3) 26 degrees in 1995
Bluefield (1959-2010)
1) 2 degrees in 1983
2) 14 degrees in 1980
3) 19 degrees in 2000 and 1989