Wason Center poll has Biden leading Trump in Virginia

(Tia Defour)
Published: Sep. 24, 2020 at 10:17 AM EDT
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NEWPORT NEWS, Va. (WDBJ) - Democrat Joe Biden holds a 5-point lead in Virginia over Republican President Donald Trump, according to a survey of likely voters released Thursday by the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. The former vice president’s lead is 48% to 43%, according to the poll. Among Virginians who say they are enthusiastic about voting in the Nov. 3 election, Biden’s lead jumps to 8 points, 51%-43%.

“Enthusiasm is a key to Biden’s lead and will be a key to turnout on Election Day,” Wason Center Research Director Rebecca Bromley-Trujillo said. “We saw an enthusiasm gap of 6 points between Democrats and Republicans in this survey.”

Among those voters, Biden shows a 27% advantage among women (61% to 34%), 18% among voters younger voters (56%-38%), 61% among Black voters (75%-14%), and 36% among college-educated voters (66%-30%). Biden and Trump are roughly tied among enthusiastic voters 45 and older, a bloc that has favored Trump in the past. Trump’s advantage with enthusiastic voters is 17% among non-college-educated voters (54%-37%), 20% among white voters (53%-43%) and 12% among men (52%-40%), according to the poll.

Democrat Mark Warner, running for a third term in the US Senate, has a lead over Republican challenger Daniel Gade among likely voters (52% to 39%) and very likely voters (52% to 41%), according to the poll. The poll indicates Warner’s lead is built on strong support among the traditional Democratic coalition of women, Black voters, younger voters and college-educated voters, but he also leads among independents and voters 45 and older. Gade has a slight lead among men and white voters and a significant lead among non-college-educated voters.

Also according to the poll, Virginia voters seem ready to pass the state constitutional amendment that would change how General Assembly and Congressional districts are drawn, with support at 48% and opposition at 28%. 24% are undecided. Support is strong among Democratic voters, Black voters, and college-educated voters. Republican voters oppose the amendment and independents are largely split.

“Considering that the Democratic Party of Virginia opposes this amendment, there seems to be a real disconnect with voters at the grassroots about reforming the way legislative districts are drawn,” said Bromley-Trujillo.

The Wason Center interviewed 796 registered Virginia voters on cell phone and landline, September 9-21. The margin of error for the survey is +/-3.9%.

Click here to see the entire poll.

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