Weather turns wetter with mid-week downpours
Potential for heavy rain and minor flooding late this week
Enjoy the quiet weather for the short-term. The forecast turns quite soggy by the middle of the week thanks to a front and humid air from Tropical Storm Eta lingering in the Gulf.
Aside from areas of patchy fog, the night will feature increasing clouds with a few showers and lows in the mid 50s. Visibility may be reduced in some areas for the early morning commute.
Areas of fog will exit by mid-morning allowing variably cloudy skies to shine through for much of the day. We also remain quite warm with highs returning to around 70°.
By Tuesday night, skies will turn mostly cloudy with lighter showers becoming likely after midnight. Rainfall may reach .25″ to .50″ through early Wednesday.
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
High pressure off the east coast along with Tropical Storm Eta in the Gulf will help to funnel in lots of tropical (humid) air. The combination of the two will deliver heavy rain starting early Wednesday and lingering into Thursday before tapering off Thursday evening.
RAINFALL TOTALS: While model amounts have been trending slightly lower the past few days, guidance still suggests widespread 1″ to 3″ of rain is possible, with locally higher amounts of 3-5″ over the 2-day stretch. The highest totals are expected along and east of the the Appalachians and Blue Ridge Parkway.
FLOOD POTENTIAL: While last week’s dry weather may help reduce the flood risk, there will be tropical moisture along with mountains squeezing out the rain. Rain may also runoff more easily thanks to trees soaking less water up due to the late-season sun angle and fewer leaves on the trees as they go dormant.
Isolated flash flooding is possible if any rain bands linger over the same areas. Also, several area rivers such as the Roanoke and Dan River will need to be monitored for minor flooding late this week if the heavy rain materializes.
Any leftover rain will quickly sweep out of the region by Friday leading to a drier end to the week. Skies turn partly to mostly sunny Friday with highs in the upper 60s.
It does appear we could be dealing with another front late in the weekend with additional rain possible, though not as heavy as this week. We will have more details on timing as we approach the middle of the week.