Tropical rain brings wetter than normal week
Stalled front brings showers, then tropical rain from Fred
- Stalled front keeps clouds, showers possible
- Fred remnants impact the region Tue - Wed
- Cooler, wetter pattern this week
A stalled front will remain over the region through late Monday leading to scattered to more numerous showers and storms. As for the rest of tonight, the greatest coverage of rainfall will likely be late from late this evening until after midnight as rain moves in from the south. The severe risk remains rather low, however, rainfall could be heavy at times with slow-moving storms.
ACTIVE WEEK AHEAD
Our lingering cold front along with tropical air from landfalling Fred will likely lead to extensive clouds and scattered showers and storms again Monday. While these may occur at any point, the afternoon may offer the best chance. Some may be slow-moving with locally heavy rain.
The persistent clouds and rain will also keep temperatures 10° below average, only reaching the upper 70s to low 80s.
By Tuesday, Fred’s steady move inland will usher in deep, tropical moisture. This will likely lead to more numerous showers and storm along with intense rain at times.
With it being so dry lately, and recent storm coverage being spotty, any widespread flood risk looks fairly low. However, we’ll need to watch any individual storms which could cause localized flooding issues.
Tuesday night into Wednesday will likely be the wettest time for our region. Tropical moisture gets pushed up against the Blue Ridge Mountains squeezing out heavy rain at times.
FLOOD CONCERNS: One thing that helps will be the recent dry spell. However, tropical rain is very efficient and may cause localized flooding of streams where slow-moving cells develop. We will also need to monitor areas that see multiple rounds of rain.
RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: While any shifts in the track may change the totals slightly, widespread amounts of 1″ to 2″ is most likely with higher amounts topping 3″+ along the southern Blue Ridge Parkway into the North Carolina Mountains.
THURSDAY - FRIDAY
The remainder of the week returns to a more typical summertime pattern with increasing temperatures along with scattered showers and thunderstorm chances. We’ll continue to watch the remnants of Grace as the eventual track toward the U.S. late next week could bring additional rain to the area. It’s still much too soon for any details.