Powerful front brings localized flood threat this week
A strong cold front will bring fall air late next week
The wedge of cool air remains in place with another round of showers developing overnight. Skies remain cloudy with lows in the mid 60s.
Several waves of rain will enter the area Tuesday ahead of the cold front. By Tuesday evening, models suggest the heaviest rain is likely along the Blue Ridge between Roanoke and Lexington, then exiting after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday. A brief break in the rain is expected Wednesday morning, before the actual cold front arrives bringing moderate to heavy rain Wednesday into early Thursday morning.
By Wednesday, a strong cold front will move into the region bringing a better chance of rain followed by much cooler, Canadian air. It looks like the front may offer our best chance of widespread rain which may be heavy at times along/west of the Blue Ridge Parkway. Models differ on the speed of the front, however, it appears much of Wednesday should be wet until much cooler, drier air moves in Thursday. We even have the potential to see some localized flooding.
Rainfall models are suggesting areas along the I-81 corridor and Blue Ridge Parkway has the best chance of topping 1″-3″ of rain. A few areas may even reach 2-5″ in spots along the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Rain will weaken some as it moves east toward Lynchburg and Danville. We will also have to watch for the threat of severe weather across the Piedmont by Wednesday afternoon.
COOLER END TO THE WEEK
The weather turns much cooler by Thursday as the Canadian air arrives. Afternoon highs will barely reach the 70s in many areas Thursday and Friday with overnight lows in the 40s for most Friday and Saturday mornings.
Rain chances will be slim to none as we get into the weekend. Instead, the weather will be extremely dry and fitting of the first weekend of Autumn.
We continue to watch an active tropical map of potential storm development. The latest outlook from the National Hurricane Center is below. The red areas are where development is likely in the next 2-5 days. Tropical Storm Peter and Tropical Depression Seventeen developed this morning. At this time these storms don’t look to affect the U.S. There are only 5 names left on the regular list of 2021 names.