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Active pattern this week could bring rain and possible wintry weather

Possible rain and snow mix Wednesday
Minimal snow likely over our region.
Minimal snow likely over our region.(WDBJ7 Weather)
Published: Dec. 5, 2021 at 6:40 AM EST|Updated: Dec. 5, 2021 at 11:33 PM EST
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  • Front to bring warm winds and some rain Monday
  • Cooler weather returns Tuesday
  • Midweek system could bring rain and/or a wintry mix

After a fairly quiet weather pattern lately, our weather pattern will flip this week with multiple systems expected to pass through the region. The first on Monday will be familiar with mountain rain likely and not much else to the east. After cooler weather returns, the second system Wednesday could bring a wintry mix to some or just much needed rain to most. Let’s break down the pattern!

MONDAY

Monday will remain partly to mostly cloudy ahead of our next front. With gusty south winds ahead of the front, highs will return to the 50s and 60s (even some near 70). A few late morning to mid-afternoon showers are possible with the best coverage in the western mountains. Those to the east will likely just see a few scattered light showers with little accumulation.

Showers chances return on Monday.
Showers chances return on Monday.(WDBJ Weather)
Rain chances look minimal on Monday.
Rain chances look minimal on Monday.(WDBJ Weather)

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY

An area of high pressure will build behind the front which will introduce cooler air for the middle of the week. Highs on Tuesday and Wednesday only reach the 30s and 40s.

The best chance of showers this week may end up being Wednesday as a system slides through the Gulf states. This may offer everyone a chance at some rain and perhaps even wintry weather if temperatures remain cold enough. If we see early morning temperatures at or below freezing on Wednesday morning a wintry mix would be possible. At this time it appears the best shot at seeing any snow would be north of 64 with a few spots down into the NRV. This will be something to watch in the coming days.

Models are pointing towards an active Wednesday.
Models are pointing towards an active Wednesday.(WDBJ Weather)

Several models are showing a colder scenario when the front moves through which could bring some snow over the WV mountains, spilling into Southwest Virginia.

This isn’t typically a favorable setup for anything significant. Plus, models have frequently overblown the available moisture. It’s certainly something that grabs our attention.

If it happens, any snow accumulation would mainly be in the grassy areas, with higher totals in West Virginia.

TIMINGCONFIDENCEMOST LIKELYIF COLDER SETUP OCCURS
Wednesday pre-dawn through middayLow on snow potential. High on precipitation in general.Cold rain showers most likely with sleet/snow mix in higher elevations. Any accumulation in grassy areas in higher elevations.Period of sleet and snow possible outside the mountains with little if any accumulation aside from elevated surfaces and grassy areas.
Wednesday's snowfall potential varies greatly based on 4 reliable models.
Wednesday's snowfall potential varies greatly based on 4 reliable models.(WDBJ7)

DROUGHT WORSENS

The story has remained the same this fall in Southside: rain has been hard to come by. A very dry November introduced a Severe Drought to parts of Southside and doesn’t look likely to resolve itself soon.

Moderate to severe drought covers much of the region as of this week.
Moderate to severe drought covers much of the region as of this week.(WDBJ7 Weather)