No signs of recession yet economist says, but uncertainty, inflation fears linger

Published: Jun. 2, 2022 at 7:48 PM EDT
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RICHMOND, Va. (WDBJ) - In Virginia and across the country, we are feeling the effects of inflation at the gas pump and the grocery store.

But how bad will it get, and are we headed for a recession?

A Virginia economist with a national reputation tried to answer those questions during an online briefing Thursday afternoon.

Chris Chmura is an economist, whose firm Chmura Economics and Analytics is familiar to many government and business leaders across the country.

“Now many of us have seen inflation at two percent to three percent over our entire career and here we are with inflation at eight percent,” Chmura said in a video promoting the webinar.

During her presentation she said the nation’s economy is performing pretty well. Consumer spending, for example, is holding up so far, and her forecasts suggests growth will continue.

“At this point, no signs that we’re going into a recession anytime soon,” Chmura said.

But as for inflation, Chmura said there are many uncertainties.

“How fast will the fed raise rates. Will we see a reduction in supply chain issues,” she asked? “The continued impact from the Russia Ukraine war. Will something else happen that is on no one’s radar screen?”

So how does the inflation forecast play out?

Chmura said a consensus number among economists in one leading forecast is three and a half percent for the Fourth Quarter of this year.

She thinks it will be closer to seven percent before moderating next year.

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